An intelligent Model for Identifying Risks of Power Supply Projects for Critical Infrastructure Facilities in the Conditions of Emergency and Martial Law

ITPM 2025: pp. 32 - 47

Authors:

  1. Аnatoliy Тryhuba
  2. Inna Тryhuba
  3. Roman Oliinyk
  4. Oleh Andrushkiv
  5. Marian Kotsylovskyi


1. Lviv National Environmental University, 1, V. Velykoho str., Dubliany-Lviv, 80381, Ukraine

2. Lviv National Environmental University, 1, V. Velykoho str., Dubliany-Lviv, 80381, Ukraine
3. Lviv State University of Life Safety, 35, Kleparivska str., 79007, Lviv, Ukraine

4. Lviv State University of Life Safety, 35, Kleparivska str., 79007, Lviv, Ukraine

5. Lviv National Environmental University, 1, V. Velykoho str., Dubliany-Lviv, 80381, Ukraine

Abstract 

A substantiated method is presented for assessing risks associated with energy supply initiatives
targeting critical infrastructure. The foundation of the proposed model lies in the integration of
spatial data, enabling the quantification of threat influence through numerical values that reflect both
their likelihood and intensity. The use of geoinformation sources, in particular OpenStreetMap,
combined with the flexibility of the Python toolkit, ensures the efficiency and relevance of the
information obtained. Based on the use of the developed model and the created program code, highrisk areas for energy supply projects for critical facilities in the Zaporizhzhia region were identified.
It was found that Enerhodar and Zaporizhzhia have the highest risk values (R1=11.4 and R2=10.8,
respectively), which corresponds to a high-risk area. These territories contain strategic critical
infrastructure facilities (Zaporizhzhia NPP) and have a high density of industrial facilities exposed to
military attacks. The results are visualized and classified by risk level. Further research should be
conducted in the direction of integrating the proposed model into a management decision support
system. This will ensure automated risk identification and visualization of risk zones on maps.

Keywords

Intelligent model, risk identification, energy supply, infrastructure, decision, system, project,
management.

References

[1] K. Piliuhina, S. Bushuyev, R. Cirillo, M. Ricotti, W. Janssens, Development of the nuclear
competencies based on global trends in the nuclear industry. Nuclear Engineering and
Design, 2024, 421, 113046.
[2] A. Tryhuba, V. Boyarchuk, N. Koval, O. Boiarchuk, N. Pavlikha, Risk-Adapted model of the
lifecycle of the technologically integrated programs of dairy cattle breeding.
International Scientific and Technical Conference on Computer Sciences and
Information Technologies, 2021, 2, pp. 307–310.
[3] A. Tryhuba, T. Hutsol, M. Kuboń, T. Hohol, W. Tomaszewska-Górecka, Taxonomy and
Stakeholder Risk Management in Integrated Projects of the European Green Deal.
Energies, 2022, 15(6), 2015.
[4] O. Bashynsky, I. Garasymchuk, D. Vilchinska, V. Dubik, Research of the variable natural
potential of the wind and energy in the northern strip of the Ukrainian Carpathians. E3S
Web of Conferences, 2020, 154, 06002.
[5] S. Bushuyev, N. Bushuyeva, V. Bushuieva, D. Bushuiev, L. Tereikovska, Dynamic principles
of integrated intelligence model for managing innovation projects. CEUR Workshop
Proceedings, 2023, 3453, pp. 13–23.
[6] R. Ahmed, I.Q. Khan, S.P. Philbin, Mediating Role of Switch Leadership between Dynamic
Work Environment and Project Success. International Journal of Information Technology
Project Management, 2022, 13(1).
[7] N. Koval, I. Kondysiuk, I. Tryhuba, O. Boiarchuk, M. Rudynets, V. Grabovets,
V. Onyshchuk, Forecasting the Fund of Time for Performance of Works in Hybrid Projects
Using Machine Training Technologies. Proceedings of the 3rd International Workshop on
Modern Machine Learning Technologies and Data Science (MoMLeT&DS 2021), Volume I:
Main Conference, Lviv–Shatsk, Ukraine, June 5–6, 2021, pp. 196–206.
[8] A. Tryhuba, O. Bashynsky, T. Hutsol, A. Rozkosz, O. Prokopova, Justification of Parameters
of the Energy Supply System of Agricultural Enterprises with Using Wind Power
Installations. E3S Web of Conferences, 2020, 154, 06001.
[9] R. Ratushny, O. Bashynsky, V. Ptashnyk, Planning of Territorial Location of Fire-Rescue
Formations in Administrative Territory Development Projects, in: CEUR Workshop
Proceedings. 2020, 2565, pp. 93-105.
[10] R. Ratushnyi, P. Khmel, E. Martyn, O. Prydatko, Substantiating the effectiveness of projects
for the construction of dual systems of fire suppression. Eastern-European Journal of
Enterprise Technologies, 4(3-100) (2019) 46–53. URL: https://doi.org/10.15587/1729-
4061.2019.175275
[11] O. Kovalchuk, O. Zachko and D. Kobylkin, Criteria for intellectual forming a project teams in
safety oriented system, in: 17th International Scientific and Technical Conference on
Computer Sciences and Information Technologies (CSIT), 2, 2022, pp. 430-433.
[12] O. Zachko, V. Grabovets, I. Pavlova, M. Rudynet, Examining the effect of production
conditions at territorial logistic systems of milk harvesting on the parameters of a fleet of
specialized road tanks, in: Eastern-European Journal of Enterprise Technologies, 2018, 5(3-
95), pp. 59–69.
[13] OpenStreetMap. URL: https://www.openstreetmap.org/
[14] Google Earth Engine. URL: https://earthengine.google.com/
[15] I. Kondysiuk, P. Lub. Approach and Software for Risk Assessment of Stakeholders of Hybrid
Projects of Transport Enterprise. CEUR Workshop Proceedings, 2022, 3295, pp. 86–96.
[16] S. Chernov, L. Chernova, L. Chernova, N. Kunanets, V. Piterska, The Synergetic Effect in
the Management of Active System with Distributed Control. IEEE 18-th International
Conference on Computer Science and Information Technologies (CSIT), 2023, pp. 1–6.
DOI: 10.1109/CSIT61576.2023.10324123.
[17] V. Boyarchuk, O. Ftoma, R. Padyuka, M. Rudynets, Forecasting the risk of the resource
demand for dairy farms basing on machine learning (MoMLeT&DS-2020). In: CEUR
Workshop Proceedings, 2020, vol. 2631.
[18] I. Kondysiuk, O. Bashynsky, V. Dembitsky, Formation and risk assessment of stakeholders
value of motor transport enterprises development projects. International Scientific and
Technical Conference on Computer Sciences and Information Technologies, 2021, 2, pp.
303–306.
[19] S.D. Bushuyev, A.V. Ivko, H. Lyakhovych, Method of Maximizing F-Synergistic Value in
IT Development Projects for Self-Managed Organizations. International Journal of
Computing, 2024, 23(3), pp. 371–379.
[20] O. Zachko, V. Demchyna, I. Zachko, Intellectual Models of Projects for the Development
of Transport Infrastructure of Urban Territorial Systems. CEUR Workshop Proceedings,
2022, 3295, pp. 159–169.
[21] ISO 31000:2018, Risk Management – Guidelines. International Organization for
Standardization, Geneva, Switzerland, 2018, 16 p.
[22] L. Chernova, A. Zhuravel, L. Chernova, N. Kunanets, O. Artemenko, Application of the
Cognitive Approach for IT Project Management and Implementation.
International Scientific and Technical Conference on Computer Sciences and Information
Technologies, 2022, pp. 426-429.
[23] A. Tryhuba, R. Ratushny, I. Tryhuba, N. Koval, I. Androshchuk, The Model of Projects
Creation of the Fire Extinguishing Systems in Community Territories, in: Acta
universitatis agriculturae et silviculturae mendelianae brunensis. 68(2) (2020). 419-431.
doi:10.11118/actaun202068020419
[24] A. Tryhuba, V. Boyarchuk, I. Tryhuba, V. Tymochko, S. Bondarchuk, Model of Assessment
of the Risk of Investing in the Projects of Production of Biofuel Raw Materials.
International Scientific and Technical Conference on Computer Sciences and Information
Technologies, 2020, 2, pp. 151–154, 9322024.
[25] S. Bushuyev, I. Chumachenko, A. Galkin, D. Bushuiev, N. Dotsenko, Sustainable
Development Projects Implementing in BANI Environment Based on AI Tools.
Sustainability (Switzerland), 2025, 17(6), 2607.
[26] V. Piterska, V. Samoilovska, V. Adakhovskyi, Assessment of port concession projects
quality based on the information and analytical risk management system. CEUR
Workshop Proceedings, 2023, 3453, pp. 71–81.
[27] Project Management Institute (PMI), A Guide to the Project Management Body of
Knowledge (PMBOK® Guide), 7th Edition. Newtown Square, PA, USA: Project
Management Institute, 2021, 370 p.
[28] ISO 22301:2019, Security and Resilience – Business Continuity Management Systems –
Requirements. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva, Switzerland, 2019, 18p.
[29] A. Tryhuba, I. Tryhuba, O. Ftoma, O. Boyarchuk, Method of quantitative evaluation of the
risk of benefits for investors of fodder-producing cooperatives, in: 14th International
Scientific and Technical Conference on Computer Sciences and Information Technologies,
3, pp. 55- 58, September 2019.
[30] А. Тryhuba, V. Boyarchuk, I. Tryhuba, O. Boiarchuk, N. Pavlikha, N. Kovalchuk, Study of
the impact of the volume of investments in agrarian projects on the risk of their value
(ITPM-2021) In: CEUR Workshop Proceedings, 2021, 2851, pp. 303-313.
[31] A. Tryhuba, S. Komarnitskyi, I. Tryhuba, T. Muzychenko, I. Horetska, Planning and Risk
Analysis in Projects of Procurement of Agricultural Raw Materials for the Production of
Environmentally Friendly Fuel. International Journal of Renewable Energy Development,
2022, 11(2), pp. 569–580.
[32] Y. Chernenko, O. Danchenko, B. Mysnyk, O. Bielova, O. Adamov, Optimizing Housing and
Communal Services Management Through Digital Transformation and Integrated
Information Systems. Lecture Notes on Data Engineering and Communications
Technologies, 2024, 222, pp. 33–49.
[33] N. Kunanets, Y. Zhovnir, Y. Burov, O. Duda, V. Pasichnyk, Designing the Structure and
Architecture of Situation-Aware Security Information Systems for Residential Complexes.
Eastern-European Journal of Enterprise Technologies, 2025, 1(9(133)), pp. 6–23.
[34] I. Bondareva, A.A. Khanova, Multi-level Management of Organizational Systems on the
Basis of Risk Cascading, Logical-Probabilistic Modeling and Simulation. Studies in Systems,
Decision and Control, 2022, 416, pp. 157–166.
[35] Law of Ukraine “On Critical Infrastructure”. Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, No. 1882-IX, adopted
on November 16, 2021. Official Bulletin of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, 2022, No. 3, Art. 21.
[Online]. Available: https://zakon.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/1882-20
[36] O. Verenych, O. Sharovara, M. Dorosh, N. Yehorchenkova, I. Golyash. Awareness
management of stakeholders during project implementation on the base of the markov
chain. Proceedings of the 2019 10th IEEE International Conference on Intelligent Data
Acquisition and Advanced Computing Systems: Technology and Applications, IDAACS
2019, 2019, 1, pp. 259–262, 8924375.
[37] S. Bushuyev, D. Bushuiev, V. Bushuieva, Interaction Multilayer model of Emotional
Infection with the Earn Value Method in the Project Management Process, in: 15th
International Scientific and Technical Conference on Computer Sciences and Information
Technologies, CSIT 2020 Proceedings, 2020, 2, pp. 146-150.
[38] R. Ratushny, I. Horodetskyy, Y. Molchak, V. Grabovets, The configurations coordination of
the projects products of development of the community fire extinguishing systems with the
project environment. ITPM-2021. In: CEUR Workshop Proceedings, 2021, 2851
[39] R. Ratushny, O. Bashynsky, V. Ptashnyk, Development and Usage of a Computer Model of
Evaluating the Scenarios of Projects for the Creation of Fire Fighting Systems of Rural
Communities, in: 2019 11th International Scientific and Practical Conference on Electronics and
Information Technologies, ELIT 2019 – Proceedings, 2019, pp. 34–39, 8892320.
[40] M. Rudynets, N. Pavlikha, I. Skorokhod, D.Seleznov, Establishing patterns of change in the
indicators of using milk processing shops at a community territory, in: Eastern-European
Journal of Enterprise Technologies, 2019, 6(3-102), pp. 57–65.
[41] K. Kolesnikova, N. Alpysbay, T. Olekh, T. Chinibayeva, Proceedings of the IEEE
International Conference on Intelligent Data Acquisition and Advanced Computing
Systems: Technology and Applications, IDAACS, 2023, pp. 741–746.
[42] L. Chernova, I. Zhuravel, S. Chernov, L. Chernova, N. Kunanets, Management of the IT
project as a complex system. CEUR Workshop Proceedings, 2024, 3709, pp. 114–125.
[43] N. Blackwell, A. Evans, P. Lee, B. McCoy, F.T. Davidson, A Methodology for Risk
Assessment to Improve the Resilience and Sustainability of Critical Infrastructure with
Case Studies from the United States Army. ASME International Mechanical Engineering
Congress and Exposition, Proceedings (IMECE), 2021, 8A, V08AT08A056.
[44] N. Pavlikha, M. Rudynets, N. Khomiuk, V. Fedorchuk-Moroz, Studying the influence of
production conditions on the content of operations in logistic systems of milk collection, in:
Eastern-European Journal of Enterprise Technologies, 2019, 3(3-99), pp. 50–63.
[45] I. Kondysiuk, O. Boiarchuk, A. Tatomyr. Intellectual information system for formation of
portfolio projects of motor transport enterprises. CEUR Workshop Proceedings, 2022, 3109,
pp 44–52.

Full text

Powered By EmbedPress